Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d1c…b28c crypto 73 markets active 5d ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+2%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 39L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$997
crypto 36% +$749
other 24% −$1,713
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -19.6% -27.2% 43% 43% -8.1%
≤30d 53 -19.6% -27.2% 43% 43% -8.1%
≤90d 73 -19.5% -27.2% 47% 42% -9.2%
all 73 -19.5% -27.2% 47% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 42% -9.2%
10% -34.1% 42% -17.9%
15% -40.5% 40% -25.8%
20% -46.3% 32% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$107 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 39
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage83d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $82 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $131 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $135 +$143 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$97 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $139 +$68 +49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $164 +$91 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Raphinha: 2+ goals Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$106 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$48 +46%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $164 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$92 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $155 +$114 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $108 +$75 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$47 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$51 +40%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $225 −$220 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $256 −$250 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $348 +$527 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $611 +$1,009 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $127 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $131 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $278 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $226 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $195 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records