Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d1e…f604 crypto 1048 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (464 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$519 (-2%) realized −$519 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%523W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day463.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (464 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -26.7% -33.7% 44% 41% -28.9%
≤30d 1109 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 1109 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 44% -14.3%
all 1109 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover463.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 44% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 13% -22.5%
15% -31.1% 0% -30.0%
20% -37.8% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$519
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses523 / 586
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1109 / 1048
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day463.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1109 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$18 -140%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$15 -111%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$24 -163%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$5 -323%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records