Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d29…65e7 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$567 (-4%) realized −$576 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%55W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$25
other 34% −$724
sports 18% −$277
economics 5% −$33
crypto 2% +$10
finance 0% +$4
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.9% -14.8% 40% 40% -18.8%
≤30d 48 -35.9% -42.0% 27% 27% -27.1%
≤90d 103 -29.3% -36.1% 34% 31% -26.7%
all 147 -23.5% -30.8% 37% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 33% -17.0%
10% -37.4% 27% -25.0%
15% -43.4% 25% -32.2%
20% -49.0% 21% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$576
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses55 / 92
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions4
Markets (closed)147 / 152
History coverage591d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $126 $149 +$24 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $77 $68 −$9 (-12%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $44 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $76 −$16 -21%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$11 -74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 −$64 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 +$20 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $21 +$19 +92%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $27 +$10 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 +$11 +132%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$15 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $83 −$8 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $40 +$39 +98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $56 −$56 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 −$24 -24%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $76 −$75 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 31 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $65 −$16 -25%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $89 −$33 -37%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 31 $64 +$66 +103%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $75 −$20 -26%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $63 −$62 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 31 $49 +$42 +86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $64 −$20 -31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $54 −$53 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $87 +$113 +129%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $42 −$41 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $50 −$50 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 30 $62 −$10 -16%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 +$139 +228%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $82 +$108 +131%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $29 −$28 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $103 +$56 +54%
Will Altimeter Capital add AMD to its upcoming 13F? May 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 14 $230 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $46 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $60 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 11¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $76 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $40 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $9 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 52¢ $4 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 52¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.83 · official $295.83 (match) · 401 history records