Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d2b…a730 crypto 1789 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$817 (+3%) realized +$820 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%963W / 825L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$280
14 days+$430
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$428
sports 1% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 357 +4.3% -5.7% 52% 52% +1.9%
≤90d 1274 +2.3% -7.5% 53% 52% -7.1%
all 1788 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 52% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 52% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 51% -17.5%
15% -26.2% 49% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 46% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$820
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses963 / 825
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1788 / 1789
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $79 +$68 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$114 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$49 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$83 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$96 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$56 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $79 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $56 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records