Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

3D 0x3d30…71f0 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$42 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate78%14W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$35

7 days+$35

14 days+$20

30 days+$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-4.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+14.5%	+3.6%	86%	29%	+2.6%
≤30d	18	+6.0%	-4.1%	78%	50%	-6.3%
≤90d	18	+6.0%	-4.1%	78%	50%	-6.3%
all	18	+6.0%	-4.1%	78%	50%	-6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.1%	50%	-6.3%
10%	-13.3%	22%	-15.3%
15%	-21.7%	17%	-23.5%
20%	-29.3%	0%	-31.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.39 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized+$42

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses14 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage19d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	73¢	58¢	$59	$48	−$12 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET	Jun 19	$61	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 19	$57	+$4	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 19	$39	+$18	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 19	$28	+$11	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?	Jun 18	$26	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	Jun 15	$26	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 14	$26	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?	Jun 12	$21	+$5	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET	Jun 12	$29	−$29	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9?	Jun 09	$28	+$2	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 09	$19	+$9	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 09	$25	−$7	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 09	$22	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	Jun 07	$20	+$2	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	Jun 03	$31	+$7	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?	Jun 02	$12	+$2	+16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	Jun 02	$10	+$2	+16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	Jun 01	$49	−$11	-23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$61	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$61	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$57	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$57	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$39	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$28	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Down	94¢	$26	36h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	SELL Up	98¢	$26	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	BUY Up	97¢	$26	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$26	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?	BUY Up	80¢	$21	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$29	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9?	BUY Down	93¢	$28	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$28	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$19	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Down	72¢	$19	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$25	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$22	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	BUY Down	88¢	$20	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	BUY Down	84¢	$17	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	SELL Down	78¢	$17	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?	BUY Down	58¢	$14	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?	SELL Down	100¢	$14	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?	BUY Down	84¢	$12	17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	BUY No	85¢	$10	18d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	BUY No	86¢	$9	19d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	SELL Yes	13¢	$9	19d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	19d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	SELL No	75¢	$19	19d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	BUY No	77¢	$20	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.