Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d32…a2a7 crypto 305 markets active 3h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$65,442 (+229%) realized +$65,428 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%126W / 178L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day71.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$3,272
finance 5% −$550
world 5% +$53
sports 3% +$456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -8.9% -17.5% 47% 44% -9.1%
≤30d 136 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 38% -15.2%
≤90d 304 -8.8% -17.5% 41% 39% -20.1%
all 304 -8.8% -17.5% 41% 39% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 39% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -27.7%
15% -32.6% 32% -34.7%
20% -39.2% 27% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$71 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$65,428
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses126 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)304 / 305
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day71.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 26¢ 34¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $97 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $154 −$149 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $87 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$10 -10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $503 +$115 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$127 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$41 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$63 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$53 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $234 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $245 +$179 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $183 −$178 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $69 +$110 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$83 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $234 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $109 +$110 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$171 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $203 −$199 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$93 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $117 +$89 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $121 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $282 +$224 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $109 +$65 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$44 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $86 −$84 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$47 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $147 −$143 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$59 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $23 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $55 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.42 · official $62.50 · 3500 history records