Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d39…4dae crypto 1038 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (236 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$4,883 (+2%) realized +$4,883 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate93%962W / 76L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day235.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$840
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (236 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 610 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 11% -11.3%
≤30d 1038 +0.6% -8.9% 93% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 1038 +0.6% -8.9% 93% 10% -9.2%
all 1038 +0.6% -8.9% 93% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover235.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 10% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$163 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,883
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses962 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 1038
History coverage10d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day235.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $225 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $302 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $226 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $451 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $151 −$39 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $150 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $304 +$78 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $226 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $301 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $340 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $302 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $301 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $301 −$98 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $301 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $451 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $302 +$32 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $217 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $223 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $225 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $298 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $146 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $147 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $225 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $278 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $296 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $214 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records