Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d3a…0f3d crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$39
sports 23% −$12
other 10% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 42% -21.2%
≤30d 43 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 42% -13.7%
≤90d 43 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 42% -13.7%
all 43 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 42% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 42% -13.7%
10% -31.6% 42% -21.9%
15% -38.2% 37% -29.5%
20% -44.3% 28% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage15d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$47 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$7 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $27 −$26 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $21 +$12 +58%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $59 +$24 +41%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 −$6 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $17 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records