Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d3b…28bd sports 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$808 (-13%) realized −$793 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%47W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$327
7 days−$677
14 days−$858
30 days−$858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$816
other 23% −$182
crypto 4% +$22
world 2% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -13.5% -21.7% 41% 41% -21.6%
≤30d 117 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 40% -22.9%
≤90d 117 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 40% -22.9%
all 117 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 40% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 40% -22.9%
10% -31.4% 40% -30.3%
15% -38.1% 40% -37.0%
20% -44.1% 32% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$47 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$793
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses47 / 70
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions7
Markets (closed)117 / 124
History coverage9d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 67¢ 64¢ $68 $64 −$4 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 43¢ 42¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 40¢ 38¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$61 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$19 +188%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $82 +$71 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $79 −$78 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $91 +$61 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $35 +$15 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $15 +$32 +206%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $86 +$66 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $67 −$66 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$145 +143%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $86 +$66 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 +$30 +197%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $89 +$60 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 +$25 +206%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 +$63 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$25 +206%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 +$74 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 +$65 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 +$25 +188%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $66 −$65 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $64 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $38 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $64 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $69 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $32 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $91 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $64 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $37 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $22 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $79 19h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $19 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $82 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $10 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $91 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $66 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 70¢ $35 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $46 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $67 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $34 45h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $15 45h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $86 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $71 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.23 · official $384.24 (match) · 183 history records