Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d3b…e920 crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,461 (-14%) realized −$1,313 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%25W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$1,075
14 days−$1,450
30 days−$1,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,061
crypto 36% −$1,781
other 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.0% -4.1% 32% 32% -56.7%
≤30d 46 +2.5% -7.3% 37% 35% -34.7%
≤90d 69 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 32% -37.4%
all 74 -15.5% -23.6% 34% 32% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 32% -37.5%
10% -30.9% 31% -43.5%
15% -37.6% 27% -48.9%
20% -43.7% 22% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$94 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$1,313
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses25 / 49
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions6
Markets (closed)74 / 80
History coverage141d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $33 $42 +$10 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $40 $24 −$16 (-41%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $162 −$159 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$115 +562%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$69 +135%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $77 +$75 +98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $528 −$520 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $134 +$66 +49%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $54 −$3 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $233 +$96 +41%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $330 −$314 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $371 −$350 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$11 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $31 +$77 +248%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $210 +$90 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $155 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $418 −$214 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $125 +$102 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $186 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $587 −$355 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $158 −$141 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $85 −$40 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $315 −$32 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 05 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 05 $67 +$33 +49%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $230 +$265 +116%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $102 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $222 −$171 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$37 +141%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $306 +$92 +30%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $282 +$57 +20%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 02 $5 −$4 -96%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $331 −$325 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 3¢ $10 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 2h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $25 2h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $25 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $102 4h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 15¢ $21 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 44¢ $120 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 2¢ $31 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 17¢ $26 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 5¢ $10 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $0 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $22 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $7 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $2 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $12 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 25¢ $22 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 25¢ $3 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 25¢ $8 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 33¢ $51 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 45¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.44 · official $137.44 (match) · 457 history records