Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d3d…4ead
crypto · 1315 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,946 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,941 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,941
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses808 / 506
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1314 / 1315
Avg bet$15
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1314 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$301
14 days−$301
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$13 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,943
weather 0% −$1
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $13 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 32% -36.0%
≤30d 328 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 36% -34.0%
≤90d 1314 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 43% -18.4%
all 1314 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 43% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 43% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 27% -26.2%
15% -32.3% 17% -33.3%
20% -39.0% 9% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records