Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d3d…b802 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$166 (+2%) realized −$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$304
14 days−$293
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$306
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +6.0% -4.1% 61% 38% -13.3%
≤30d 151 +4.1% -5.9% 62% 38% -13.0%
≤90d 151 +4.1% -5.9% 62% 38% -13.0%
all 151 +4.1% -5.9% 62% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 38% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 25% -21.4%
15% -23.1% 15% -28.9%
20% -30.6% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage15d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$35 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$82 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $203 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $284 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $299 −$16 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$52 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$53 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $83 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $512 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$67 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $107 +$52 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $112 +$35 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$61 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $527 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $107 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $129 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $108 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $22 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $135 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $123 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $284 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $283 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $299 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $66 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records