Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3d3e…061c sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$329 (+3%) realized +$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%50W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$406
7 days+$314
14 days−$156
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$232
crypto 20% −$608
other 11% +$225
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.6% -5.4% 39% 32% -1.2%
≤30d 84 +5.8% -4.2% 45% 42% -7.9%
≤90d 84 +5.8% -4.2% 45% 42% -7.9%
all 111 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 42% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 40% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 39% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$87 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 61
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage158d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$14 +7%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $201 −$198 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $183 −$181 -99%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $156 +$328 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $130 +$235 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $167 +$461 +276%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $154 −$151 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$54 +54%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $94 +$6 +6%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $145 −$143 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$198 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $164 −$162 -99%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $99 +$64 +64%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $182 +$122 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$22 -21%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $99 +$487 +490%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $129 −$126 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 +$186 +276%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $167 +$199 +119%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $197 −$192 -98%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $183 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $103 +$86 +84%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $162 −$160 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $103 +$62 +60%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $131 −$129 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $49 +$81 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $95 −$93 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $195 +$251 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $79 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$34 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $99 −$98 -98%
Birmingham: James Watt vs Harry Wendelken Jun 02 $126 −$124 -98%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $99 +$127 +128%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $170 −$167 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $32 −$30 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $84 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $103 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $217 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 50¢ $201 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 57¢ $183 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 32¢ $156 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $130 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $628 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $167 19h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 32¢ $154 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $154 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 22h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 93¢ $100 24h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 87¢ $94 24h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 47¢ $203 26h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 17¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $145 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $201 42h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 54¢ $164 43h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $99 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $182 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $84 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 47h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 37¢ $101 47h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 53¢ $85 47h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $587 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records