Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d41…e3dd
crypto · 886 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$980 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$999 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$61
Realized−$999
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses489 / 391
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)880 / 886
Avg bet$15
Trades / day130.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 6 History 880 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$429
14 days−$647
30 days−$999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $35 $53 +$18 (+53%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Up 67¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 8AM ET? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 8AM ET? Yes 26¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 7AM ET? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 5AM ET? No 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? No 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 10AM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 9, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 9, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 4PM ET? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 5AM ET? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 9, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $129 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 11 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 9, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 10, 8AM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 5AM ET? Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 11, 4PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 5AM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $123 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $44 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 11AM ET? Jun 11 $42 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 10AM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$802
sports 7% −$38
weather 5% −$164
other 2% +$4
world 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 8AM ET? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 8AM ET? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? BUY No 5¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? SELL Yes 93¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 42m
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? SELL No 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 7AM ET? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL No 100¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY No 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY No 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 64¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -19.0% -26.7% 44% 31% -17.1%
≤30d 880 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 31% -16.5%
≤90d 880 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 31% -16.5%
all 880 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 31% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 31% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 21% -24.5%
15% -33.2% 14% -31.8%
20% -39.8% 8% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.37 · official $61.37 (match) · 3500 history records