Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d45…6035 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$311 (-18%) realized −$311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$243
world 16% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +8.3% -2.0% 54% 50% +15.0%
≤30d 28 +8.3% -2.0% 54% 50% +15.0%
≤90d 28 +8.3% -2.0% 54% 50% +15.0%
all 42 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 43% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 43% -25.6%
10% -24.2% 36% -32.7%
15% -31.6% 36% -39.2%
20% -38.3% 36% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage123d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $192 +$35 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$55 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$27 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $66 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$13 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$12 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$50 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 10 $174 −$94 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 09 $266 −$218 -82%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $288 −$67 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 19 $73 −$73 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 19 $69 +$40 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 19 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 19 $3 +$3 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 19 $55 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 19 $61 +$54 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records