Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d46…feef crypto 80 markets active 24h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$355 (+6%) realized +$323 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%48W / 27L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$329
14 days−$329
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$120
world 15% −$225
politics 13% +$161
crypto 10% −$54
sports 8% +$411
economics 2% −$5
finance 2% −$41
tech 1% +$7
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.8% -25.6% 58% 58% -40.1%
≤30d 14 -6.4% -15.4% 64% 64% -29.6%
≤90d 16 +11.2% +0.6% 62% 62% +6.2%
all 75 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 51% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 51% -4.5%
10% -18.4% 40% -13.7%
15% -26.3% 24% -22.0%
20% -33.5% 15% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$48 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$323
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses48 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage399d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 63¢ 96¢ $100 $152 +$52 (+52%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 64¢ 38¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND United States v Jun 19 $27 +$8 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $38 −$27 -70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$11 +31%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 18 $136 −$57 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Tota Jun 17 $60 +$27 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 16 $200 +$49 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $92 +$41 +45%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $51 +$40 +79%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $126 +$465 +369%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? Mar 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 3? Mar 21 $48 +$24 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 9 at 5P Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Mar 21 $131 −$11 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 16? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7? Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? Mar 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Mar 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Mar 21 $209 −$100 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 2 at 5P Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 01 $96 +$6 +6%
Will no listed leader be out in 2025? Jan 03 $227 +$73 +32%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 08 $56 +$50 +89%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Nov 21 $31 +$11 +36%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 09 $200 +$26 +13%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Nov 07 $212 +$15 +7%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4? Nov 06 $29 −$11 -37%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 05 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 04 $200 +$12 +6%
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? Nov 02 $400 +$31 +8%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Nov 02 $95 +$7 +7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $369 +$16 +4%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? Nov 01 $300 +$137 +46%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 30 $7 $0 +7%
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? Oct 25 $20 +$80 +399%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 12 $21 +$3 +15%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30? Oct 01 $248 +$70 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND United States v BUY 77¢ $27 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $35 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $35 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 64¢ $101 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 26¢ $35 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Tota BUY 69¢ $60 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $100 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $100 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $249 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 5d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $92 29d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No 54¢ $306 36d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $591 44d
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 56¢ $51 73d
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 73d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $101 138d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? BUY No 83¢ $109 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? SELL No 94¢ $109 155d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $96 158d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? BUY No 86¢ $100 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.48 · official $372.48 (match) · 242 history records