Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d46…7695 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$35
sports 27% −$28
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$6
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage134d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $349 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $328 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $345 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $599 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $201 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $402 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 55m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 3h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 5h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 6h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 7h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 15h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 25h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 26h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 28h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 32h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 35h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 37h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 37h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 38h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 40h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 46h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1398 history records