Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d48…5605 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%72W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 58 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 72 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses72 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage112d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $252 $252 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $252 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $249 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $247 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $247 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $247 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $247 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 08 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? May 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $234 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $244 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $242 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $241 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $238 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $237 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $236 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $236 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $236 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $236 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $236 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $252 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $252 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $251 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $251 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $251 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $251 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $248 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $249 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $249 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $248 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $248 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $248 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $248 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $247 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $247 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $247 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $247 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $246 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $246 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $246 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $245 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $245 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $246 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $199 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $244 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $197 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.57 · official $258.57 (match) · 146 history records