Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d48…6d01
crypto · 84 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$50 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$12
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$18 +590%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% +$26
other 14% $0
sports 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +16.0% +5.0% 52% 52% -0.6%
≤30d 83 +15.6% +4.6% 52% 52% +13.9%
≤90d 83 +15.6% +4.6% 52% 52% +13.9%
all 83 +15.6% +4.6% 52% 52% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 52% +13.9%
10% -5.4% 51% +3.0%
15% -14.6% 47% -7.0%
20% -23.0% 45% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.25 · official $26.25 (match) · 145 history records