Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

3D 0x3d4e…ba20 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,870 (+13%) realized +$2,376 · open +$494

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$1,084per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$4,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$215

7 days+$2,036

14 days+$2,036

30 days+$2,994

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+16.5%	+5.4%	62%	50%	+2.6%
≤30d	17	+17.7%	+6.5%	65%	53%	+5.7%
≤90d	17	+17.7%	+6.5%	65%	53%	+5.7%
all	17	+17.7%	+6.5%	65%	53%	+5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.5%	53%	+5.7%
10%	-3.7%	47%	-4.4%
15%	-13.0%	41%	-13.6%
20%	-21.5%	24%	-22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,989) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +58% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$316 vs −$80 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.28 per $1 lost it wins $7.28

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$4,214

Realized+$2,376

Unrealized+$494

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage97d

Avg bet$1,084

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	88¢	100¢	$3,600	$4,089	+$489 (+14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	53¢	55¢	$120	$125	+$5 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 24	$305	−$300	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 24	$102	−$2	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$15	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$16	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 24	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 24	$204	+$73	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 24	$77	+$64	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 24	$78	−$75	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 24	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$25	-97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W	Jun 23	$102	+$453	+442%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$3,602	+$71	+2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$3,603	+$97	+3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$3,264	+$350	+11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,711	+$466	+27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,989	+$908	+46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$2,592	+$959	+37%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	88¢	$3,613	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$305	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$89	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$42	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$204	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$77	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$78	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$52	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$26	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$122	26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN	BUY	49¢	$160	27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,673	45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	98¢	$3,602	46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL No	100¢	$3,700	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	97¢	$3,603	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	100¢	$3,614	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	90¢	$3,264	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	100¢	$2,177	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	78¢	$1,711	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W	BUY	18¢	$102	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,989	3d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	73¢	$2,592	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,214.30 · official $4,371.73 · 35 history records