Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d50…713d
other · 3 markets active 5d ago
4.0score
+$41,830 +259%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,830 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$41,830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5,385
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 0 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$42,013
14 days+$42,013
30 days+$41,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $366 +$2,009 +550%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $15,552 +$40,003 +257%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 28 $238 −$182 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$41,830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $58 4d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $819 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,952 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $169 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $148 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,846 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $147 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $115 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $242 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $81 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $76 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $84 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $99 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,102 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,056 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $466 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $67 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $201 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+203.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +403.5% +355.5% 100% 100% +229.3%
≤30d 3 +235.7% +203.7% 67% 67% +229.3%
≤90d 3 +235.7% +203.7% 67% 67% +229.3%
all 3 +235.7% +203.7% 67% 67% +229.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +203.7% 67% +229.3%
10% ← realistic here +174.6% 67% +197.8%
15% +148.1% 67% +169.0%
20% +123.8% 67% +142.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records