Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d58…e3ce world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%26W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$6
other 26% −$10
politics 12% +$2
sports 11% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 14% -8.1%
≤30d 26 +1.3% -8.4% 35% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 68 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 3% -9.3%
all 72 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses26 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage526d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $52 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $67 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 22 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $49 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $88 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $50 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $51 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $39 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $50 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $49 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.70 · official $43.84 (match) · 325 history records