Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d5a…4c29 crypto 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$256 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate38%221W / 366L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day184.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,387
7 days−$1,639
14 days−$644
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$1,916
other 6% −$622
tech 4% −$72
finance 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+62.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 +95.7% +77.1% 32% 17% -20.5%
≤30d 587 +79.5% +62.4% 38% 18% -11.6%
≤90d 587 +79.5% +62.4% 38% 18% -11.6%
all 587 +79.5% +62.4% 38% 18% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.4% 18% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here +46.8% 14% -20.0%
15% +32.6% 13% -27.8%
20% +19.6% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +127% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,826
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses221 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions134
Markets (closed)587 / 723
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day184.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 134 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 56¢ 95¢ $129 $218 +$89 (+69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $194 $196 +$2 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 48¢ 84¢ $82 $145 +$62 (+75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $126 $131 +$5 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 25¢ 59¢ $33 $78 +$45 (+137%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $56 $62 +$5 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 41¢ 22¢ $61 $32 −$30 (-48%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $51 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? No 94¢ 92¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $23 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 27¢ 92¢ $7 $25 +$17 (+238%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 27¢ 74¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+173%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 366 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 25 above $215? Jun 19 $7 −$6 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? Jun 19 $12 −$2 -19%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 17? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Micron (MU) close at $920-$940 on the final day of trading of the Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Jun 19 $11 +$20 +176%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Jun 19 $12 +$4 +38%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 19 $0 +$2 +992%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 11? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Jun 19 $4 +$6 +151%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 19 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 19 $1 +$2 +335%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 7? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m Jun 19 $6 +$36 +562%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 7? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Jun 19 $0 +$5 +58596%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 23? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 3? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 31? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $250-$255 on the final day of trading of t Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April Jun 19 $1 +$38 +3896%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 19 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta (META) close at $610-$620 on the final day of trading of the Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8? Jun 19 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? Jun 19 $11 +$25 +223%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 3? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.8%? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 7? Jun 19 $0 +$2 +100319%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of t Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 28, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 7¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,826.10 · official $1,828.77 (match) · 3500 history records