Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3D 0x3d61…6c1f other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (378 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$835per market

Trades / day378.0pace

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-14.4%	-22.5%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	7	-14.4%	-22.5%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	7	-14.4%	-22.5%	0%	0%	-9.6%
all	7	-14.4%	-22.5%	0%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover378.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-22.5%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-29.9%	0%	-18.3%
15% ← realistic here	-36.7%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-42.9%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

24.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$1 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$835

Trades / day378.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	98¢	98¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Jun 18	$211	$0	-0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$170	−$1	-0%
Trump out as President by June 30?	Jun 18	$20	$0	-0%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 18	$6,177	−$4	-0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$21	$0	-0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$59	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	SELL No	100¢	$20	0m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY No	100¢	$20	0m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	SELL No	100¢	$8	1m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY No	100¢	$8	2m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	SELL No	100¢	$5	2m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	SELL No	100¢	$15	2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	94¢	$11	14m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$19	21m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$31	22m
Trump out as President by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$20	24m
Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$20	24m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$31	24m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$31	27m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$25	29m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$25	32m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$25	32m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL No	98¢	$19	39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$25	39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$20	39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$20	39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$20	43m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$20	43m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	99¢	$20	43m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$20	43m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY No	98¢	$19	54m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$21	56m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$21	56m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY No	100¢	$20	1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	SELL No	100¢	$20	1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL No	98¢	$71	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.05 · official $20.05 (match) · 379 history records