Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d63…67bf crypto 179 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%85W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day83.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$17
other 2% −$4
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.3% -23.3% 50% 45% -24.4%
≤30d 179 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 41% -15.2%
≤90d 179 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 41% -15.2%
all 179 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 41% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 35% -23.4%
15% -32.7% 31% -30.8%
20% -39.3% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses85 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day83.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 471 history records