Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d64…fb7b crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$45 (-21%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$17
other 46% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +353.9% +310.6% 50% 50% +33.4%
≤30d 4 +126.9% +105.3% 25% 25% -25.9%
≤90d 5 +81.5% +64.3% 20% 20% -30.5%
all 5 +81.5% +64.3% 20% 20% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.3% 20% -30.5%
10% +48.5% 20% -37.2%
15% +34.2% 20% -43.2%
20% +21.0% 20% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$34 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage57d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 −$33 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $12 +$87 +741%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$21 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $70 −$69 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $68 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $101 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24? BUY No 44¢ $14 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records