Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d65…7a07 other 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$22
14 days−$35
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 25% −$18
politics 8% −$8
economics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$12
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage135d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $464 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $774 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $859 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $841 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $642 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $610 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $738 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $523 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $339 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $460 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $580 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $308 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 7h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 8h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 11h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 17h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 19h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 29h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 31h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 36h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 38h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 41h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 42h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 43h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1434 history records