Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d66…01e4 crypto 23 markets active 4d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$909 (+65%) realized +$909 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$990
sports 14% −$120
other 3% +$9
culture 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 50% +1.5%
≤30d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 38% -7.0%
≤90d 21 -31.8% -38.3% 29% 24% -53.4%
all 23 -29.2% -35.9% 30% 26% +47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 26% +47.3%
10% -42.1% 26% +33.2%
15% -47.7% 22% +20.3%
20% -52.8% 13% +8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +63% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$11 · ×13.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.81 per $1 lost it wins $5.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$909
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage112d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +46%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal Jun 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $55 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 17 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $27 −$20 -73%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 15 $22 −$7 -30%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? May 06 $6 +$2 +24%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $70 −$58 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 21 $1,063 +$1,029 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 6d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 97¢ $16 26d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 97¢ $4 26d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 97¢ $4 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 29d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru SELL Punjab Kings 21¢ $31 31d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Punjab Kings 36¢ $55 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 31d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 15¢ $7 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 53¢ $27 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records