Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d6b…16d9 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 50% -9.9%
≤30d 38 -19.0% -26.8% 50% 45% -7.7%
≤90d 45 -22.1% -29.5% 47% 40% -17.9%
all 45 -22.1% -29.5% 47% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 40% -17.9%
10% -36.3% 36% -25.8%
15% -42.4% 33% -32.9%
20% -48.1% 18% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage30d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $11 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $13 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $36 +$19 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 31 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $11 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $13 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $10 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $52 +$65 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 30 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $26 +$59 +225%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $36 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $31 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $29 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $17 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $9 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $20 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $55 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records