Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d6b…9f76 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%110W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$18
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$23
weather 22% −$5
crypto 21% −$8
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +29.2% +16.9% 62% 62% +13.5%
≤30d 40 +31.5% +19.0% 58% 58% +17.8%
≤90d 210 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 50% -7.1%
all 210 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 50% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 50% -7.1%
10% -15.2% 45% -16.0%
15% -23.4% 42% -24.1%
20% -30.9% 33% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses110 / 100
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 247
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +102%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +111%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Hai Jun 14 $2 +$4 +217%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 -35%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 +$1 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1 $0 +46%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 +$2 +112%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 52¢ $1 42m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Re BUY 10¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $1 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 43¢ $1 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 64¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY 55¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Scor BUY 47¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 36¢ $1 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $1 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) AND Will France win o BUY 24¢ $1 6d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY 49¢ $1 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: N BUY 12¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND France vs BUY 23¢ $1 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 47¢ $1 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $1 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $1 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 43¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 37¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 45¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 531 history records