Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d7a…bfd4 crypto 1477 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$101 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%112W / 1362L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1474 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1474 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1474 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.5%
all 1474 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses112 / 1362
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1474 / 1477
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 50¢ 96¢ $52 $101 +$49 (+93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 50¢ 4¢ $52 $4 −$49 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.00 · official $105.00 (match) · 3500 history records