Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d7a…4f7b crypto 1504 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%1072W / 431L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day70.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$14
14 days−$51
30 days−$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 +0.6% -9.0% 74% 66% -6.9%
≤30d 1503 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 44% -10.7%
≤90d 1503 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 44% -10.7%
all 1503 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 44% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 23% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 12% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1072 / 431
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1503 / 1504
History coverage26d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day70.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.23 · official $48.38 (match) · 3232 history records