Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d7a…725c sports 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,181 (-3%) realized −$1,181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%91W / 110L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$49
14 days−$50
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,958
other 26% +$1,508
world 0% −$44
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +54.8% +40.0% 40% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 19 +25.9% +13.9% 32% 26% -14.1%
≤90d 142 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 36% -8.3%
all 201 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 40% -11.6%
10% -26.9% 28% -20.1%
15% -34.0% 21% -27.8%
20% -40.5% 13% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$96 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses91 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage172d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $301 −$211 -70%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $290 −$5 -2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$5 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 −$98 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 +$100 +33%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1276%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $205 +$97 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $38 −$17 -44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $49 −$28 -58%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $242 −$211 -87%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $192 +$50 +26%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 01 $1 +$7 +695%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $3 −$3 -95%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $30 +$12 +40%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $82 +$1 +1%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $196 +$1 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $134 +$61 +46%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $471 −$239 -51%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $1 $0 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $29 +$31 +106%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $30 +$15 +52%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $312 +$62 +20%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $285 +$26 +9%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $90 41m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $301 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $286 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $290 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $6 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $10 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 24¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $104 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $400 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $300 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $302 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $205 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $70 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $5 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 41¢ $14 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 57¢ $20 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 3¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records