Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d7c…ebb4 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-8%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$96
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$100
politics 23% −$3
sports 19% +$33
crypto 8% −$24
world 7% +$4
tech 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -30.3% -37.0% 38% 38% -34.8%
≤30d 17 -27.7% -34.6% 41% 41% -32.7%
≤90d 17 -27.7% -34.6% 41% 41% -32.7%
all 30 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 43% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 43% -23.6%
10% -29.5% 33% -30.9%
15% -36.3% 27% -37.6%
20% -42.6% 23% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage590d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 12AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on September 5? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jun 04 $20 +$3 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Jan 05 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 09 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 2AM ET Sep 04 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $10 $0 +1%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Jan 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $20 −$6 -32%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $19 +$14 +75%
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 08 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 4¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 153d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY No 87¢ $20 158d
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 158d
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? BUY No 3¢ $3 186d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 98¢ $25 186d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 59¢ $15 190d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 45¢ $10 190d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 190d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect BUY Yes 87¢ $10 190d
Bitcoin above $110K on September 5? BUY No 36¢ $4 284d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.42 · official $50.42 (match) · 70 history records