Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d7c…b493 sports 7 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-35%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$51
crypto 19% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.5% -47.1% 29% 29% -58.8%
≤30d 7 -41.5% -47.1% 29% 29% -58.8%
≤90d 7 -41.5% -47.1% 29% 29% -58.8%
all 7 -41.5% -47.1% 29% 29% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 29% -58.8%
10% -52.1% 29% -62.7%
15% -56.8% 29% -66.3%
20% -61.0% 14% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 −$2 -14%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $72 −$55 -76%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 1¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 85¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 60¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Knicks 46¢ $12 4d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $13 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $8 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 1¢ $62 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) SELL Knicks 3¢ $8 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) SELL Knicks 12¢ $19 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 7¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $17 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 3¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records