Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d7d…10fc
other · 666 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,943 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,168 · open −$1,798
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$481
Realized+$4,168
Unrealized−$1,798
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses452 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions225
Markets (closed)768 / 666
History coverage11d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day177.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 225 History 768 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$895
7 days+$2,261
14 days+$4,168
30 days+$4,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? No 60¢ 100¢ $44 $73 +$29 (+67%)
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 96¢ 99¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 98¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 95¢ 96¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 94¢ 96¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? No 91¢ 96¢ $35 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 89¢ 85¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 62¢ 76¢ $25 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? No 87¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 64¢ 46¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 94¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+200%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denmark win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on May Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +8403%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 104°F or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 14 $0 +$47 +83062%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $28 −$33 -119%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 7? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attor Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 +$7 +6853%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or below on June 3? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Great Britain win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slovenia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29? Jun 14 $13 −$11 -84%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-29? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +5065%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$1,256
sports 23% +$62
politics 10% +$1,619
world 7% −$152
weather 6% +$622
tech 3% +$114
crypto 1% +$370
finance 1% −$134
economics 1% +$8
culture 0% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 44¢ $29 48m
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 76¢ $50 48m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $65 48m
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 98¢ $64 48m
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 80¢ $52 48m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $57 51m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $477 52m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $231 52m
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $40 52m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $44 52m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $541 52m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 83¢ $349 1h
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 68¢ $287 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 48¢ $206 1h
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 98¢ $408 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $13 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 70¢ $174 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 68¢ $135 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $177 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+91.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 582 +88.8% +70.8% 51% 25% -6.5%
≤30d 768 +111.8% +91.7% 59% 30% -4.1%
≤90d 768 +111.8% +91.7% 59% 30% -4.1%
all 768 +111.8% +91.7% 59% 30% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover177.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +91.7% 30% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here +73.3% 23% -13.3%
15% +56.6% 20% -21.7%
20% +41.2% 17% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.57 · official $475.57 · 3500 history records