Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d7e…ad97 weather 718 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$905 (+4%) realized +$906 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%349W / 423L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$4
sports 19% +$250
crypto 8% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -68.7% -71.7% 17% 16% -55.2%
≤30d 124 -42.5% -48.0% 33% 32% -30.4%
≤90d 666 -12.1% -20.5% 43% 33% -15.2%
all 772 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 34% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 34% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 25% -23.6%
15% -32.6% 21% -31.0%
20% -39.2% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$906
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses349 / 423
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)772 / 718
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 58¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 11AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 6PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 2AM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 11PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 4PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 8PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 7AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 12PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 8PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 12AM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 12PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 11AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9PM ET Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 2PM ET Jun 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 1PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 23, 12PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $119 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $33 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $3 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $2 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 12h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $2 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $12 23h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $1 29h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $46 30h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $49 30h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $65 30h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $6 37h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $3 39h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $0 43h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $1 44h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $11 47h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $71 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $43 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $63 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $65 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $89 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 55¢ $54 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $21 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $2 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $66 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $56 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $40 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.00 · official $117.00 (match) · 3500 history records