Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3D 0x3d81…77b0 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+24%) realized +$261 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$75
politics 29% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% +31.1%
≤30d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% +31.1%
≤90d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% +31.1%
all 2 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% +31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% +31.1%
10% -20.2% 50% +18.5%
15% -28.0% 50% +7.1%
20% -35.0% 50% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$100 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage126d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $101 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $289 +$275 +95%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $200 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 76d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $187 76d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 76d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $227 77d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $136 77d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $1 103d
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 104d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $100 104d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 126d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.93 · official $205.93 (match) · 162 history records