Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3d82…ea1f other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-1%) realized −$77 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%54W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$274
14 days−$290
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$343
world 11% −$88
sports 10% −$179
politics 5% −$124
culture 4% +$79
crypto 3% −$128
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +40.3% +26.9% 82% 82% +28.8%
≤30d 39 -23.0% -30.3% 44% 44% -29.0%
≤90d 65 +24.4% +12.5% 49% 49% -3.6%
all 129 +3.3% -6.5% 42% 38% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 38% -9.7%
10% -15.5% 34% -18.3%
15% -23.6% 31% -26.2%
20% -31.1% 29% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$31 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses54 / 75
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)129 / 135
History coverage172d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots Yes 38¢ 46¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 15¢ $72 $1 −$71 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 +$20 +97%
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots Jun 28 $46 +$53 +116%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots Jun 28 $81 +$38 +47%
Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots Jun 27 $91 +$38 +42%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots Jun 27 $40 +$8 +20%
Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots Jun 27 $81 −$80 -99%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 26 $86 +$64 +74%
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots Jun 26 $68 +$74 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $96 +$62 +65%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $91 −$90 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots Jun 15 $101 −$97 -96%
Elye Wahi: 2+ shots Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$16 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $32 −$22 -70%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$43 +415%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$56 +272%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 24 $31 +$76 +250%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $92 +$205 +223%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 12 $120 −$32 -27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $46 +$32 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 14h
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $20 18h
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $25 18h
Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $91 20h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $40 26h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots BUY Yes 83¢ $40 29h
Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $81 29h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots BUY Yes 68¢ $40 29h
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $7 46h
Michael Olise: 3+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $15 46h
Michael Olise: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $71 46h
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $61 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $96 5d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 12d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 12d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $41 12d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $31 12d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $51 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.30 · official $184.30 (match) · 356 history records