Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d83…bdfc crypto 607 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,873 (-29%) realized −$1,872 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%279W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$705
other 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -23.7% -31.0% 75% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 310 -37.4% -43.4% 42% 9% -21.4%
≤90d 607 -20.4% -28.0% 46% 29% -19.9%
all 607 -20.4% -28.0% 46% 29% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 29% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 29% -27.5%
15% -41.2% 29% -34.5%
20% -47.0% 27% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,872
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses279 / 328
Open positions1
Markets (closed)607 / 607
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 607 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$10 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$8 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$47 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 46m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $24 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 3500 history records