Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d8a…5724
politics · 127 markets active 18d ago
0.0score
−$41,201 -143%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$895 · open +$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,356
Realized−$895
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses62 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions68
Markets (closed)93 / 127
History coverage1027d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 68 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $91 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Yes 75¢ 57¢ $76 $58 −$18 (-24%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 56¢ $4 $56 +$52 (+1454%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 91¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 77¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 92¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 21¢ $4 $21 +$17 (+485%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Deep Water" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer May 26 $40 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Michael" make it into the IMDb Top 250? May 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will "Deep Water" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer May 04 $66 +$34 +52%
Will "Hokum" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? May 04 $75 +$24 +32%
Will "Deep Water" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer May 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 17 $15 +$5 +30%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? Apr 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will The Bride! get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awa Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 04 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 22 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Bradley Cooper win the Oscar for Best Actor? Mar 22 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Trump and Biden debate before Election? Mar 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will someone else win the Oscar for Best Actor? Mar 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 22 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 22 $255 −$255 -100%
Trump and Biden both win nomination? Mar 22 $281 −$112 -40%
Will Colman Domingo win the Oscar for Best Actor? Mar 22 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor? Mar 22 $58 −$58 -100%
[Single Market] Will Kamala Harris win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presid Mar 22 $394 −$96 -24%
Will Robert De Niro win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $831 −$28 -3%
[Single Market] Will Kanye West win the U.S. 2024 Republican president Mar 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will Emily Blunt win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress? Mar 22 $5 $0 +3%
[Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice Mar 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Trump and Biden both lose nomination? Mar 22 $72 +$11 +16%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Mar 22 $53 +$22 +41%
Will Da'Vine Joy Randolph win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress? Mar 22 $40 +$5 +12%
[Single Market] Will Hillary Clinton win the U.S. 2024 Democratic pres Mar 22 $868 +$18 +2%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14 Mar 22 $95 +$5 +5%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 Mar 22 $82 +$18 +22%
[Single Market] Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic preside Mar 22 $1,824 +$32 +2%
[Single Market] Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican presidential no Mar 22 $826 +$42 +5%
[Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres Mar 22 $1,759 +$28 +2%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Mar 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? Mar 22 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Dean Phillips win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Mar 22 $195 +$5 +3%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 Mar 22 $290 +$7 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Mar 22 $191 +$9 +5%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 Mar 22 $217 +$5 +2%
[Single Market] Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice pre Mar 22 $189 +$36 +19%
[Single Market] Will Tim Scott win the U.S. 2024 Republican vice presi Mar 22 $260 +$40 +15%
[Single Market] Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican presidenti Jul 03 $752 +$27 +4%
[Single Market] Will Pete Buttigieg win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presi Jun 28 $623 +$19 +3%
[Single Market] Will Mike Pence win the U.S. 2024 Republican president Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
[Single Market] Will Ron DeSantis win the U.S. 2024 Republican preside May 21 $1,960 +$137 +7%
[Single Market] Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democrati Apr 01 $837 +$12 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% −$903
other 16% +$182
world 5% −$42
culture 4% −$141
weather 1% +$25
crypto 1% −$3
tech 0% +$33
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw SELL Yes 47¢ $9 17d
Will "Michael" make it into the IMDb Top 250? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 19d
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw SELL Yes 52¢ $14 22d
Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL Yes 11¢ $7 27d
Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL Yes 8¢ $2 31d
Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL Yes 9¢ $2 31d
Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw BUY No 45¢ $2 31d
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 32d
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL Yes 29¢ $23 33d
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw BUY No 45¢ $2 39d
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 39d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 42d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 43d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 43d
Will "Deep Water" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer BUY No 100¢ $40 43d
Will "Hokum" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 43d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 43d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 43d
Will "Hokum" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 43d
Will "Deep Water" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer BUY Yes 26¢ $13 43d
Will "Deep Water" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer BUY Yes 66¢ $66 43d
Will "Hokum" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? BUY Yes 75¢ $59 43d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 43d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $94 44d
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL No 82¢ $14 44d
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy SELL No 84¢ $14 44d
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Acad BUY Yes 6¢ $0 53d
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250? BUY No 23¢ $3 55d
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Acad BUY Yes 6¢ $0 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 45 -24.8% -32.0% 58% 22% -20.4%
all 93 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 20% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 20% -12.6%
10% -30.5% 12% -21.0%
15% -37.2% 5% -28.6%
20% -43.4% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,356.03 · official $1,356.11 (match) · 2255 history records