Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d8b…f8e9 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$4
other 21% $0
politics 7% −$6
tech 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 30 -7.3% -16.1% 40% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -10.8%
10% -24.1% 0% -19.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage435d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $55 −$3 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $2 $0 -19%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $13 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $25 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $38 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $38 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $34 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $14 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $23 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $42 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $42 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.41 · official $34.41 (match) · 92 history records