Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d8f…d1e3 other 42 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$9
sports 18% +$5
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -35.6%
≤30d 42 +10.8% +0.2% 36% 36% -11.4%
≤90d 42 +10.8% +0.2% 36% 36% -11.4%
all 42 +10.8% +0.2% 36% 36% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 36% -11.4%
10% -9.4% 33% -19.9%
15% -18.1% 33% -27.7%
20% -26.2% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +129%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 −$30 -66%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -93%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $6 +$5 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$7 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 +$3 +165%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$6 +206%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$14 +173%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$26 +503%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -46%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$23 +208%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +473%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $7 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 7d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $6 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 8d
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 13¢ $0 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 9d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records