Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d94…f7b2 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate80%39W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$22
14 days+$31
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$22
other 13% −$9
sports 2% +$16
weather 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 29% -2.2%
≤30d 29 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 17% -11.0%
≤90d 49 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 10% -10.2%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.4% 6% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses39 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage57d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 +$3 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $31 −$1 -4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $13 +$17 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $16 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 06 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 7? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on June 2? May 30 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 31? May 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 28? May 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 28? May 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 27? May 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 24? May 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23? May 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 20? May 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 20? May 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? May 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 17? May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 14? May 13 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? May 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $78 −$11 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $75 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 24? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $47 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $45 45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $37 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $31 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $18 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $29 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $31 12d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $13 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 12d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 16d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 16d
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $72 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.30 · official $51.30 (match) · 101 history records