Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d96…b432 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-1%) realized −$94 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$441
14 days+$293
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$64
sports 20% +$229
world 2% −$269
economics 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% +11.9%
≤30d 24 -1.9% -11.2% 46% 46% +2.6%
≤90d 26 -9.4% -18.1% 42% 42% +2.4%
all 42 -13.7% -21.9% 43% 40% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 40% -12.7%
10% -29.4% 40% -21.1%
15% -36.2% 38% -28.7%
20% -42.4% 38% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$68 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$9,224
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage230d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $6,380 $6,376 −$4 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $2,701 $2,699 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+49%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $86 $74 −$12 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$59 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$77 +146%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$161 +158%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $277 +$195 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$89 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 −$119 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) Jun 13 $129 +$166 +129%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $135 +$196 +146%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $103 +$100 +97%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $106 −$105 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $97 +$94 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $120 −$118 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $220 −$58 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 24 $90 −$90 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $66 +$54 +82%
Heat vs. Warriors Jan 20 $49 +$17 +35%
Nuggets vs. Kings Nov 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-07? Nov 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 03 $80 +$43 +54%
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $40 +$71 +177%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Nov 01 $50 +$59 +117%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $70 +$70 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $2,704 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $6,402 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $20 40h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $53 42h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $102 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $277 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $107 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $121 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) BUY Legacy 43¢ $129 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $71 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 36¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 6d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $203 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $135 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $57 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $192 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $50 6d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $103 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $97 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $120 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,224.15 · official $9,224.15 (match) · 238 history records