Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d97…f263 sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,614 (-9%) realized −$20,614 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,466per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3,012est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 177d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$42,580
other 3% +$2,220
crypto 1% −$601
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.8% -26.5% 31% 31% -31.8%
≤30d 17 +4.0% -5.9% 35% 35% -24.0%
≤90d 61 -17.6% -25.4% 34% 34% -41.8%
all 66 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 39% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 38% -34.0%
15% -32.5% 35% -40.4%
20% -39.1% 30% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$4,434) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,982 vs −$2,963 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20,614
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$3,012
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage177d
Avg bet$3,466
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $7,686 −$7,533 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $4,434 −$2,783 -63%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $5,920 −$5,818 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $9,669 +$9,024 +93%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $11,272 −$1,416 -13%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $5,991 −$3,456 -58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,755 +$3,023 +172%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $5,068 +$3,122 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $4,231 −$4,153 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $1,600 +$1,360 +85%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,650 +$2,313 +140%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1,505 −$1,301 -86%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $5,704 −$804 -14%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $4,008 −$3,925 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $5,690 −$1,961 -34%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $2,397 −$2,337 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1,525 +$5,621 +369%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $1,728 +$5,606 +324%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $1,163 +$1,256 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 15 $529 −$505 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 15 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 15 $413 +$318 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 15 $214 −$214 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $1,230 −$588 -48%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) May 15 $4,209 −$4,151 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $401 −$390 -97%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) May 13 $5,171 −$5,095 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 13 $3,641 +$1,542 +42%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $1,157 −$1,137 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 12 $390 +$769 +197%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $962 −$942 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrino May 11 $5,171 −$5,125 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $2,995 +$1,182 +40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $2,879 +$818 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi May 10 $4,312 −$4,263 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $2,363 +$1,949 +82%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $2,286 −$2,268 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $1,008 +$2,278 +226%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca May 09 $3,707 −$3,694 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $1,614 +$2,091 +130%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez May 08 $6,098 +$1,777 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $5,801 +$2,810 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $4,885 +$918 +19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Shevche May 06 $4,188 −$4,137 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 06 $2,132 +$2,064 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) May 06 $2,176 +$1,945 +89%
Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 0.5 May 03 $90 −$87 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners May 03 $584 −$496 -85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 03 $942 −$918 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 35¢ $1,665 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks SELL Emiliana Arango 15¢ $1,651 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $5,920 2h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $959 2h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $1,021 2h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $1,020 2h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $3,021 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 90¢ $11,942 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $4,903 3h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 23¢ $3,490 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $1,052 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 26¢ $2,535 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $5,991 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 60¢ $6,750 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 47¢ $10,302 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 9¢ $1,970 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 41¢ $4,766 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 80¢ $7,670 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $4,760 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 39¢ $509 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 39¢ $509 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 39¢ $204 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 39¢ $259 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 39¢ $204 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 39¢ $509 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 38¢ $2,241 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,778 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 12¢ $1,919 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 12¢ $563 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 9¢ $2,021 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records