Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

3D 0x3d98…3743 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$6 (-11%) realized −$5 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-12.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-3.1%	-12.3%	60%	60%	+1.3%
≤30d	5	-3.1%	-12.3%	60%	60%	+1.3%
≤90d	5	-3.1%	-12.3%	60%	60%	+1.3%
all	5	-3.1%	-12.3%	60%	60%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.3%	60%	+1.3%
10%	-20.7%	40%	-8.4%
15%	-28.3%	40%	-17.2%
20%	-35.4%	40%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.38 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized−$5

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	72¢	$16	$15	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$15	+$11	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 29	$6	−$6	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 29	$6	−$6	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$1	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$5	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$16	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$0	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$6	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$6	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$6	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$5	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$10	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.46 · official $15.68 (match) · 10 history records