Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d98…f1c6 other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$51
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$7
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage138d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $273 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $294 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $383 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $293 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $429 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $274 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $386 −$3 -1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $364 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $322 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $445 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $314 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $310 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 47m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 4h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 6h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 12h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 13h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 31h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 32h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 34h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 35h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 37h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 39h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 45h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.55 · official $53.56 (match) · 1469 history records