Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3d99…eea4 politics 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 213d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% $0
other 8% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 0% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -24.4%
10% -33.8% 0% -31.7%
15% -40.2% 0% -38.3%
20% -46.0% 0% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage213d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -39%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 39m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 165d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 177d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $20 177d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 212d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.83 · official $378.83 (match) · 8 history records