Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d9a…f4e1 sports 1203 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1182W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$80
other 17% +$20
weather 16% +$19
crypto 2% +$2
finance 2% +$3
tech 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 211 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1201 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.6%
all 1201 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1182 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1201 / 1203
History coverage79d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs McNally Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 19h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 19h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $70 20h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 20h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $100 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $75 45h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $100 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 47h
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A BUY India A 100¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $100 2d
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $100 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $100 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $199.90 (match) · 2611 history records